Analysis: Currencies

Currencies: Between Hopes of De-escalation and Energy Realities

Markets are navigating a pivotal phase where geopolitics dictate the tempo, while the real economy remains resilient. The conflict with Iran continues to set the tone, based on a simple equation: as...

Currencies: Markets Enter a Moment of Truth

Oil, central banks, and war: markets are no longer driven by liquidity, but rather by crude oil and geopolitics. The conflict in the Middle East and tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue...

Currencies: All Eyes on Hormuz

Military intervention against Iran continues to favor the dollar, which is enjoying another consecutive week of gains amid rising bond yields. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to...

Currencies: At a Crossroads

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to have consequences that go beyond a simple spike in crude prices. Yet none of the forces involved has any interest in prolonging the military...

EURO / US DOLLAR (EUR/USD): The euro retreats sharply

Recent geopolitical developments are reshuffling the pack and giving the dollar some breathing room. Not because of US economic expansion , but above all as a defensive move. On the one hand,...

Currencies: A big mess

The end of February saw a real shift in tone. This is no longer just an equity consolidation fuelled by sector rotation. It is a test of the macro regime itself, caught between tariffs swinging back...

Russia plans to divert more oil revenues to budget reserve fund and cut spending

Russia plans to divert more oil revenues into the budget reserve fund, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday, following President Vladimir Putin's overnight meeting with officials on how...

Ex-BOJ chief Kuroda calls for rate hikes, tighter fiscal policy

Japan must keep raising interest rates and tighten fiscal policy as the economy is already in great shape, former central bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda said, warning that Premier Sanae Takaichi's big...

In surprise move, Japan's government taps two reflationists for BOJ board

Japan's government on Wednesday nominated two academics seen by markets as strong advocates of economic stimulus to join the central bank's board, in moves seen reflecting the Takaichi...

Rupee ends flat, NDF maturity-linked dollar bids blunt modest inflows

The Indian rupee ended nearly flat on Wednesday as dollar demand spurred by maturing contracts in the non-deliverable forwards market blunted positive impulses from modest inflows and gains in Asian...

Japan's services inflation steady, signals wage-driven price pressure

A leading indicator of Japan's services sector prices rose 2.6% in January from a year earlier, data showed on Wednesday, a sign rising wages from a tight labour market continued to pile inflationary...

ECB's Lagarde sticks with 'good place' mantra

Euro zone inflation and the European Central Bank's interest rate policy remain in a good place, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday, repeating her long standing guidance, which signals...

Tariffs: how the White House tripped over its own feet

The White House loves to dramatise the stakes. But it is a double-edged strategy.

Global diesel flows further reshuffle on EU sanctions, discounted Russian exports, data shows 

U.S. diesel exports to Europe hit an all-time high in January after the continent strengthened its ban on imports of Russian-derived fuel, and as discounted Russian diesel displaced U.S. fuel in...

Winners and losers from Trump's new 15% global tariff

The U.S. Supreme Court annulment of President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs justified on national emergency grounds and Trump's subsequent move to impose a temporary 15% global tariff have thrown...

Fed's Waller: January jobs data an upside surprise, if it continues a policy pause may be appropriate

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he was open to leaving interest rates on hold at the Fed's March meeting if upcoming February jobs data indicates the U.S. labor market had pivoted to...

EURO / US DOLLAR (EUR/USD): Without a pivot, no salvation

For several months, the market had been operating on a simple script: solid growth, easing inflation, two rate cuts starting in June. However, the PCE has now complicated that equation. While most...

EU delays 'Made in Europe' plan after disagreements over scope

The European Commission said on Monday it had delayed the announcement of a policy to prioritise industrial parts and products made in Europe by a week after disagreements over the geographic scope of...

Currencies: Tariffs, Act 2

Equities are consolidating because leadership is changing. The dollar is resisting because the Fed is not pivoting . The yen is hesitating because global stress is not taking hold. However,...