Projected Income Statement: Swatch Group

Forecast Balance Sheet: Swatch Group

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 -2,556 -2,538 -1,986 -1,374 -1,193 -1,212 -1,227 -1,135
Change - 0.7% 21.75% 30.82% 13.17% -1.59% -1.24% 7.5%
Announcement Date 25/1/22 24/1/23 23/1/24 30/1/25 30/1/26 - - -
1CHF in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Swatch Group

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 295 387 785 549 451 404.9 405.9 415.9
Change - 31.19% 102.84% -30.06% -17.85% -10.22% 0.23% 2.47%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 1,003 337 -170 -216 56 526.8 502.4 248.7
Change - -66.4% -150.45% -27.06% 125.93% 840.62% -4.62% -50.5%
Announcement Date 25/1/22 24/1/23 23/1/24 30/1/25 30/1/26 - - -
1CHF in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Swatch Group

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 19.95% 20.87% 20.04% 10.69% 8.89% 12.1% 14.25% 15.74%
EBIT Margin (%) 13.96% 15.44% 15.1% 4.51% 2.15% 5.84% 8.05% 9.5%
EBT Margin (%) 13.82% 14.62% 14.6% 5.12% 2.52% 5.42% 7.1% 8.76%
Net margin (%) 10.46% 10.76% 11.02% 2.87% 0.05% 4.04% 5.48% 6.07%
FCF margin (%) 13.72% 4.49% -2.16% -3.21% 0.89% 8.2% 7.46% 3.54%
FCF / Net Income (%) 131.11% 41.76% -19.56% -111.92% 1,866.67% 202.8% 136.18% 58.32%

Profitability

        
ROA 5.76% 5.85% 6.18% 1.37% 0.02% 0.98% 1.58% 1.94%
ROE 6.82% 6.86% 7.19% 1.59% 0.03% 2.15% 3.07% 3.65%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 4.03% 5.16% 9.95% 8.15% 7.18% 6.3% 6.03% 5.92%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 20.22% 24.73% 49.65% 76.25% 80.82% 52.09% 42.3% 37.58%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 29.41% 114.84% -461.76% -254.17% 805.36% 76.87% 80.78% 167.22%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 25.06 13.96 11.86 6.44 9.76 11.32 13.95 16.67
Change - -44.29% -15.04% -45.7% 51.55% 16.01% 23.23% 19.5%
Dividend per Share 1 5.5 6 6.5 4.5 4.5 4.587 5.076 5.524
Change - 9.09% 8.33% -30.77% 0% 1.93% 10.68% 8.81%
Book Value Per Share 1 224.1 232.6 236.4 236.4 224.5 223.4 225.2 228.8
Change - 3.76% 1.65% -0.01% -5.01% -0.52% 0.81% 1.6%
EPS 1 14.77 15.56 16.75 3.74 0.05 5.064 7.542 9.666
Change - 5.35% 7.65% -77.67% -98.66% 10,027.34% 48.95% 28.16%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 51,771 51,808 51,836 51,872 51,767 51,996 51,996 51,996
Announcement Date 25/1/22 24/1/23 23/1/24 30/1/25 30/1/26 - - -
1CHF
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 41.7x 28x
PBR 0.95x 0.94x
EV / Sales 1.51x 1.44x
Yield 2.17% 2.4%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
HOLD
Number of Analysts
20
Last Close Price
211.20CHF
Average target price
166.04CHF
Spread / Average Target
-21.38%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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