Projected Income Statement: Swatch Group

Forecast Balance Sheet: Swatch Group

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 -2,556 -2,538 -1,986 -1,374 -1,193 -1,137 -1,160 -1,172
Change - 0.7% 21.75% 30.82% 13.17% 4.69% -2.02% -1.03%
Announcement Date 25/1/22 24/1/23 23/1/24 30/1/25 30/1/26 - - -
1CHF in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Swatch Group

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 295 387 785 549 451 413.2 409.2 420.9
Change - 31.19% 102.84% -30.06% -17.85% -8.39% -0.96% 2.86%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 1,003 337 -170 -216 56 266.1 745.2 698.6
Change - -66.4% -150.45% -27.06% 125.93% 375.18% 180.03% -6.25%
Announcement Date 25/1/22 24/1/23 23/1/24 30/1/25 30/1/26 - - -
1CHF in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Swatch Group

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 19.95% 20.87% 20.04% 10.69% 8.89% 11.49% 14.03% 15.79%
EBIT Margin (%) 13.96% 15.44% 15.1% 4.51% 2.15% 5.17% 7.93% 9.77%
EBT Margin (%) 13.82% 14.62% 14.6% 5.12% 2.52% 5.39% 7.75% 9.43%
Net margin (%) 10.46% 10.76% 11.02% 2.87% 0.05% 3.51% 5.25% 6.4%
FCF margin (%) 13.72% 4.49% -2.16% -3.21% 0.89% 4.05% 10.75% 9.65%
FCF / Net Income (%) 131.11% 41.76% -19.56% -111.92% 1,866.67% 115.4% 204.78% 150.69%

Profitability

        
ROA 5.76% 5.85% 6.18% 1.37% 0.02% 0.91% 1.58% 1.96%
ROE 6.82% 6.86% 7.19% 1.59% 0.03% 1.85% 2.91% 3.6%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 4.03% 5.16% 9.95% 8.15% 7.18% 6.29% 5.9% 5.81%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 20.22% 24.73% 49.65% 76.25% 80.82% 54.73% 42.06% 36.81%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 29.41% 114.84% -461.76% -254.17% 805.36% 155.27% 54.92% 60.25%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 25.06 13.96 11.86 6.44 9.76 11.19 13.74 16.82
Change - -44.29% -15.04% -45.7% 51.55% 14.63% 22.78% 22.42%
Dividend per Share 1 5.5 6 6.5 4.5 4.5 4.626 5.153 5.614
Change - 9.09% 8.33% -30.77% 0% 2.81% 11.38% 8.95%
Book Value Per Share 1 224.1 232.6 236.4 236.4 224.5 223.3 225.4 228.9
Change - 3.76% 1.65% -0.01% -5.01% -0.53% 0.92% 1.55%
EPS 1 14.77 15.56 16.75 3.74 0.05 4.772 7.518 9.719
Change - 5.35% 7.65% -77.67% -98.66% 9,443.74% 57.55% 29.28%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 51,771 51,808 51,836 51,872 51,767 51,996 51,996 51,996
Announcement Date 25/1/22 24/1/23 23/1/24 30/1/25 30/1/26 - - -
1CHF
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 37x 23.5x
PBR 0.79x 0.78x
EV / Sales 1.21x 1.15x
Yield 2.62% 2.92%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
HOLD
Number of Analysts
20
Last Close Price
176.60CHF
Average target price
168.83CHF
Spread / Average Target
-4.40%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise