Projected Income Statement: Almarai Company

Forecast Balance Sheet: Almarai Company

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 9,203 9,521 9,887 10,140 12,516 13,224 13,233 11,907
Change - 3.46% 3.84% 2.56% 23.43% 5.65% 0.07% -10.02%
Announcement Date 23/1/22 23/1/23 21/1/24 20/1/25 18/1/26 - - -
1SAR in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Almarai Company

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 1,088 1,301 2,506 4,834 5,387 4,152 3,659 2,958
Change - 19.55% 92.68% 92.92% 11.43% -22.92% -11.88% -19.17%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 3,827 2,529 1,977 1,194 -503.2 916.3 1,888 2,893
Change - -33.93% -21.83% -39.59% -142.14% 282.08% 106.05% 53.23%
Announcement Date 23/1/22 23/1/23 21/1/24 20/1/25 18/1/26 - - -
1SAR in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Almarai Company

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 23.9% 22.73% 23.2% 23.31% 25.38% 21.7% 21.98% 22.34%
EBIT Margin (%) 13.33% 13.12% 14.26% 15.07% 14.03% 13.52% 13.9% 14.21%
EBT Margin (%) 10.52% 9.88% 11.06% 11.74% 11.77% 11.28% 11.75% 12.39%
Net margin (%) 9.87% 9.4% 10.47% 11.03% 11.13% 10.59% 11.01% 11.59%
FCF margin (%) 24.15% 13.51% 10.1% 5.69% -2.28% 3.85% 7.46% 10.82%
FCF / Net Income (%) 244.71% 143.7% 96.47% 51.62% -20.49% 36.34% 67.76% 93.4%

Profitability

        
ROA 4.88% 5.51% 6% 6.45% 6.5% 5.7% 6.3% 6.3%
ROE 9.83% 10.73% 11.89% 12.64% 12.49% 12.07% 12.53% 13.19%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 2.43x 2.24x 2.18x 2.07x 2.24x 2.56x 2.38x 1.99x
Debt / Free cash flow 2.4x 3.77x 5x 8.49x -24.87x 14.43x 7.01x 4.12x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 6.86% 6.95% 12.8% 23.04% 24.41% 17.44% 14.46% 11.06%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 28.72% 30.56% 55.18% 98.86% 96.19% 80.37% 65.8% 49.53%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 28.42% 51.43% 126.77% 404.87% -1,070.44% 453.14% 193.8% 102.23%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 4.915 3.829 4.483 6.028 5.463 4.651 5.415 6.028
Change - -22.09% 17.06% 34.49% -9.38% -14.87% 16.45% 11.31%
Dividend per Share 1 1 1 1 1 1.15 1.164 1.205 1.298
Change - 0% 0% 0% 15% 1.2% 3.52% 7.73%
Book Value Per Share 1 16.12 16.67 17.8 18.79 20.53 21.43 23 24.6
Change - 3.43% 6.76% 5.58% 9.24% 4.4% 7.31% 6.96%
EPS 1 1.59 1.76 2.05 2.31 2.48 2.516 2.798 3.137
Change - 10.69% 16.48% 12.68% 7.36% 1.46% 11.18% 12.15%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000
Announcement Date 23/1/22 23/1/23 21/1/24 20/1/25 18/1/26 - - -
1SAR
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 19x 17.1x
PBR 2.23x 2.07x
EV / Sales 2.56x 2.41x
Yield 2.44% 2.52%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
BB
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
15
Last Close Price
47.72SAR
Average target price
58.01SAR
Spread / Average Target
+21.57%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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