Yves Sanquer

Currencies: dollar lifted by a hawkish tilt

Markets are entering a more complex phase. After largely cheering the de-escalation in the Middle East conflict and the slide in oil prices, investors now have to contend with an environment where geopolitical risks remain, while the US economy continues to show strength that complicates the Federal Reserve's job.

13 July 2026 at 06:07 pm AEST

Currencies: The dollar remains strong

After several months in which markets moved to the beat of geopolitical tensions and then the oil shock, a new phase appears to be opening. The conflict in the Middle East is gradually fading from the top of investors' worries, allowing macroeconomics and monetary policy to take back control of markets. And the message is clear: the US economy is slowing slightly, but it remains far from a recession scenario.

06 July 2026 at 06:09 pm AEST

Currencies: The Rally is Confirmed

After several months dominated by geopolitical risk, markets are gradually returning to their fundamentals. The retreat in oil prices, following the easing of tensions in the Middle East, removes a major obstacle to global growth. However, another concern is now taking center stage: underlying inflation remains far more persistent than expected, even as the American economy continues to display remarkable strength.

29 June 2026 at 07:18 pm AEST

Currencies: Stabilization Across the Board

The market continues to navigate a paradoxical environment, in which rising inflation coexists with an economy that still refuses to slow down significantly. Despite the oil shock triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, key US activity indicators remain remarkably solid, explaining why equities continue to demonstrate unexpected resilience.

01 June 2026 at 06:46 pm AEST

Currencies: A Welcome Breath of Fresh Air

Markets found some breathing room this week, though the primary catalyst remains unchanged: developments in the Middle East conflict and, specifically, the prospects for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Every easing of oil prices mechanically triggers a rebound in risk assets, while any doubt regarding negotiations reignites inflationary fears and weighs on yields.

25 May 2026 at 06:15 pm AEST

Currencies: Inflation rears its ugly head

Markets are currently navigating a phase far more complex than a simple "risk-on/risk-off" scenario. The real issue is no longer just the war in Iran or the surge in oil prices, but rather how this energy shock is disrupting a US economy that - for now - remains surprisingly resilient.

18 May 2026 at 11:40 pm AEST

Currencies: Market begins to look beyond the oil shock

The dollar remains supported by a high interest rate environment, although the markets are gradually shifting away from a narrative that is purely dominated by the energy shock. After several weeks where oil and geopolitical risk dictated all macro flows, investors are slowly returning to economic and monetary fundamentals.

11 May 2026 at 06:14 pm AEST

Currencies: Heading towards a pivot, but lacking a decisive catalyst

The dollar is entering a more hesitant phase as the market navigates between the gradual normalization of the energy shock and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. After being bolstered by rising oil prices and the repricing of rate cut expectations, the greenback is seeing its drivers peter out, leaving it without a clear directional catalyst in the near term.

05 May 2026 at 05:44 pm AEST

Currencies: Between Easing Oil Prices and the Return of the Monetary Cycle

The dollar is entering a more fragile phase as the market begins to glimpse a potential de-escalation on the energy front. Having been bolstered for several weeks by rising oil prices and the associated inflationary shock, the greenback is gradually losing this support as tensions appear to be shifting toward a negotiation phase.

28 April 2026 at 05:46 pm AEST

Currencies: The Dollar Loses Some of Its Support

The dollar is entering a more directional phase, yet one that remains contingent on a key factor: oil. After several weeks of extreme tension linked to the Iranian conflict, the market is beginning to shift from a purely inflationary regime towards a more balanced one, where the risk of a slowdown is gradually being priced back in.

20 April 2026 at 07:25 pm AEST

Currencies: Unstable Equilibrium in an Oil-Dominated Regime

The dollar is navigating a transitional environment, caught between an oil-driven inflationary shock and a global economy that - for now - remains resilient. Unlike typical periods of market stress, the greenback is not fully capturing safe-haven flows, suggesting that markets are not yet pricing in a scenario of a global recession.

13 April 2026 at 06:40 pm AEST

Currencies: Oil-Driven Inflation

The dollar is navigating a particularly ambiguous environment, caught in a pincer movement between an oil-induced inflationary shock and the absence of a genuine flight to quality. Unlike typical periods of market stress, the greenback is not fully benefiting from its safe-haven status, suggesting that the markets are not yet pricing in a global recessionary scenario.

07 April 2026 at 10:07 pm AEST

Currencies: Markets Enter a Moment of Truth

Oil, central banks, and war: markets are no longer driven by liquidity, but rather by crude oil and geopolitics. The conflict in the Middle East and tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to dominate the equation, relegating economic data to the sidelines.

23 March 2026 at 11:50 pm AEDT

Currencies: All Eyes on Hormuz

Military intervention against Iran continues to favor the dollar, which is enjoying another consecutive week of gains amid rising bond yields. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to maritime freight, the situation is unlikely to improve.

16 March 2026 at 09:47 pm AEDT

Currencies: At a Crossroads

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to have consequences that go beyond a simple spike in crude prices. Yet none of the forces involved has any interest in prolonging the military intervention longer than necessary.

10 March 2026 at 02:46 am AEDT

EURO / US DOLLAR (EUR/USD): The euro retreats sharply

03 March 2026 at 04:11 am AEDT

Currencies: A big mess

The end of February saw a real shift in tone. This is no longer just an equity consolidation fuelled by sector rotation. It is a test of the macro regime itself, caught between tariffs swinging back and forth, inflation edging up slightly and the geopolitical landscape which has been shaken by a major strike on Iran.

03 March 2026 at 01:21 am AEDT

EURO / US DOLLAR (EUR/USD): Without a pivot, no salvation

23 February 2026 at 11:58 pm AEDT

Currencies: Tariffs, Act 2

Equities are consolidating because leadership is changing. The dollar is resisting because the Fed is not pivoting (yet). The yen is hesitating because global stress is not taking hold. However, disinflation slowing and a rotation in flows point to one thing: the second leg of the cycle will be more selective, more international, and less concentrated in US mega-caps. In other words, the cycle is not reversing; it is transforming.

23 February 2026 at 09:27 pm AEDT

Currencies: Tariffs, Act II

Equity markets are consolidating as leadership shifts. The dollar is holding firm because the Fed has yet to pivot. The yen is wavering as global stress fails to take root. However, slowing disinflation and rotating capital flows signal one thing: the second half of the cycle will be more selective, more international, and less concentrated on U.S. mega-caps. In other words, the cycle is not reversing; it is transforming.

23 February 2026 at 09:17 pm AEDT

Currencies: a fragile calm

The macroeconomic releases of recent days have not upended the central scenario, but they have clarified the regime in which markets are now operating. We are neither in a euphoric acceleration nor tipping into recession. We are in a mid-cycle slowdown, with financial markets searching for balance. In this context, the FX market is becoming an early barometer of confidence.

16 February 2026 at 08:31 pm AEDT