Projected Income Statement: Swatch Group

Forecast Balance Sheet: Swatch Group

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 -2,556 -2,538 -1,986 -1,374 -1,193 -1,223 -1,237 -1,147
Change - 0.7% 21.75% 30.82% 13.17% -2.51% -1.14% 7.28%
Announcement Date 25/1/22 24/1/23 23/1/24 30/1/25 30/1/26 - - -
1CHF in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Swatch Group

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 295 387 785 549 451 418.4 419.5 431.6
Change - 31.19% 102.84% -30.06% -17.85% -7.22% 0.25% 2.9%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 1,003 337 -170 -216 56 526.8 502.4 248.7
Change - -66.4% -150.45% -27.06% 125.93% 840.62% -4.62% -50.5%
Announcement Date 25/1/22 24/1/23 23/1/24 30/1/25 30/1/26 - - -
1CHF in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Swatch Group

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 19.95% 20.87% 20.04% 10.69% 8.89% 12.09% 14.23% 15.6%
EBIT Margin (%) 13.96% 15.44% 15.1% 4.51% 2.15% 5.84% 8.04% 9.39%
EBT Margin (%) 13.82% 14.62% 14.6% 5.12% 2.52% 5.39% 7.06% 8.74%
Net margin (%) 10.46% 10.76% 11.02% 2.87% 0.05% 4.04% 5.46% 6.06%
FCF margin (%) 13.72% 4.49% -2.16% -3.21% 0.89% 8.22% 7.47% 3.56%
FCF / Net Income (%) 131.11% 41.76% -19.56% -111.92% 1,866.67% 203.58% 136.75% 58.69%

Profitability

        
ROA 5.76% 5.85% 6.18% 1.37% 0.02% 0.98% 1.58% 1.94%
ROE 6.82% 6.86% 7.19% 1.59% 0.03% 2.14% 3.05% 3.48%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 4.03% 5.16% 9.95% 8.15% 7.18% 6.53% 6.24% 6.17%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 20.22% 24.73% 49.65% 76.25% 80.82% 53.96% 43.84% 39.57%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 29.41% 114.84% -461.76% -254.17% 805.36% 79.43% 83.49% 173.56%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 25.06 13.96 11.86 6.44 9.76 11.26 13.88 16.57
Change - -44.29% -15.04% -45.7% 51.55% 15.42% 23.19% 19.42%
Dividend per Share 1 5.5 6 6.5 4.5 4.5 4.59 5.081 5.551
Change - 9.09% 8.33% -30.77% 0% 1.99% 10.71% 9.24%
Book Value Per Share 1 224.1 232.6 236.4 236.4 224.5 223.3 225.1 228.7
Change - 3.76% 1.65% -0.01% -5.01% -0.53% 0.79% 1.58%
EPS 1 14.77 15.56 16.75 3.74 0.05 5.028 7.508 9.467
Change - 5.35% 7.65% -77.67% -98.66% 9,956.16% 49.33% 26.09%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 51,771 51,808 51,836 51,872 51,767 51,996 51,996 51,996
Announcement Date 25/1/22 24/1/23 23/1/24 30/1/25 30/1/26 - - -
1CHF
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E Ratio 40.2x 26.9x
PBR 0.9x 0.9x
EV / Sales 1.44x 1.37x
Yield 2.27% 2.52%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
BB
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
HOLD
Number of Analysts
20
Last Close Price
202.00CHF
Average target price
164.14CHF
Spread / Average Target
-18.74%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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