Brent crude is trading below $90 a barrel this morning after a wild stretch that briefly sent prices near $120 earlier this week. That drop has helped steady nerves. So has a report that the International Energy Agency is considering a record release of strategic oil reserves to calm markets. If it happens, it would be bigger than the emergency releases that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

That matters because oil is now driving almost everything else. It is shaping how investors think about inflation, interest rates, consumer spending, transportation costs, and politics. So today's focus is clear: watch crude, watch the February inflation report, and watch whether policymakers can keep this from turning into a bigger economic shock.

Under normal conditions, the U.S. consumer-price report would be the main event. Published this morning, it showed consumer prices rose 0.3% month over month in February, while core CPI (which excludes food and energy) increased 0.2%, both in line with expectations. On an annual basis, headline inflation came in at 2.4% and core inflation at 2.5%, also matching forecasts. This suggests inflation remains relatively contained and is continuing to move closer to the Federal Reserve's target, without any major upside surprise.

But these are not normal conditions. Several analysts have made the same point in different ways: the real issue is not what inflation did last month. It is what higher energy prices may do in the next few months.

That is why expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have already shifted. Traders who recently expected a cut in July now see September as more likely. The concern is straightforward: if oil pushes up gasoline and shipping costs, inflation could stay sticky even as growth softens. That would leave the Fed in the kind of position central bankers hate most: forced to choose between fighting inflation and supporting the economy, with no painless option available.

And the pressure is no longer theoretical. Diesel prices in the U.S. just posted a record weekly jump - up 96 cents a gallon, according to government data. That is bad news for truckers, retailers, manufacturers, and eventually consumers. Diesel is not some distant Wall Street abstraction. It is the price tag on moving actual stuff around the actual country. When it jumps like this, inflation has a way of showing up where people live, not just where economists forecast. For now, though, equity markets are still holding together better than you might expect.

U.S. stock futures are lower this morning, but only modestly. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, has moved back above 20, which signals anxiety, but not full panic. Treasury yields are edging higher. The dollar is broadly steady. Gold is easing after a previous rise. Copper is slipping because industrial metals remain sensitive to energy turmoil, while aluminum is climbing on supply worries and shrinking exchange inventories.

The mood can change almost by the hour, because the news flow has become absurdly important. Donald Trump says the war with Iran may not last long; oil drops and stocks recover. Then doubts return, and both moves reverse. The U.S. Energy Secretary says an escorted tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz; the market relaxes. The White House pushes back; the market tightens up again. It is hard to call this price discovery when it looks more like collective whiplash.

Still, there are reasons the market has not cracked. One is the possibility of policy intervention. The IEA reserve-release proposal has given traders at least some confidence that governments are not prepared to sit back and watch oil spiral.

Another reason for resilience is that investors are still finding pockets of optimism elsewhere: specially in artificial intelligence. Oracle gave the market a lift after raising its sales outlook and saying demand for AI-related cloud infrastructure continues to outstrip supply. Its shares jumped sharply in premarket trading, and semiconductor stocks such as Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD also moved slightly higher.

That may sound like a separate story, but it is not. In a market this tense, investors are desperate for evidence that some part of the economy still has momentum. Oracle provided exactly that. The company suggested the AI boom remains strong well into 2027. It also said it is using AI internally to replace some workers, which is efficient if you are a spreadsheet and less exciting if you are a human being.

Other corporate results will be watched today for similar clues. Campbell's is reporting as it tries to stop a sales slide. Sprinklr and UiPath will be examined for signs of how enterprise AI software is holding up. Nike got a boost from an analyst upgrade.

Politics, meanwhile, is not making the market's job easier. Trump has suggested the Iran war is nearly won, but reports indicate the U.S. and Israel do not fully agree on when the conflict should end or what ending it would even mean. The U.S. needs this conflict to stay short if it wants to avoid a broader inflation problem. Iran, by contrast, has every reason to let the pressure drag on.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly higher, helped by Oracle and hopes for IEA action. Japan, mainland China, Australia, Taiwan, and South Korea all gained, though Hong Kong and India were weaker. Europe is trading lower today, even after a strong rebound yesterday. That mix says a lot. Investors still want to buy dips. They just do not trust them very much.

Investors have become so used to bouncing back from shocks that they may be treating resilience as proof that everything is manageable. It may mean the market is still assuming someone will step in, calm oil, steady inflation, and stop this war from getting more expensive. Maybe that happens. Maybe the IEA acts. Maybe the conflict fades. Maybe Oracle and the AI trade keep offering enough good news to offset the bad. But the danger is complacency: the market will struggle if headlines turn into higher fuel bills, delayed rate cuts, thinner margins, and more pressure on households.

Today's economic highlights:

Today: in the United States, the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, followed by inflation data including the MoM and YoY Inflation Rate, CPI, and CPI s.a, as well as the Core Inflation Rate MoM and YoY; Fed Bowman's Speech; EIA Gasoline and Crude Oil Stocks Change; and finally, the Monthly Budget Statement. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index:98.987
  • Gold: $5,190
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $92.70 (WTI) $88.66
  • United States 10 years: 4.17%
  • BITCOIN: $69,460

In corporate news:

  • Apollo Global Management is backing Adani Energy's $500 million private debt deal to help refinance dollar-denominated debt.
  • General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis are part of a broader U.S. industry shift toward larger, pricier vehicles, which is helping drive new-car affordability problems.
  • Amazon is making its euro bond market debut with a deal that could raise about €10 billion to fund major AI infrastructure investments.
  • JPMorgan marked down some private-credit loan portfolios, especially software-related exposure, amid growing concerns over credit quality.
  • Ares Management plans to launch its first Asia local-currency private credit fund in Thailand.
  • Microsoft argued in court that cutting off Anthropic from U.S. military work could disrupt Pentagon capabilities.
  • Morgan Stanley is hiring contract staff in Hong Kong to handle rising IPO activity while keeping costs down.
  • Eli Lilly plans to invest $3 billion in China over the next decade to expand supply chains and support production of orforglipron, while also announcing a partnership with Pharmaron.
  • Honeywell priced a $16 billion private debt offering partly to fund costs tied to its planned spin-off.
  • Carlyle agreed to sell Colombian oil producer SierraCol to Prime Infrastructure in a deal reportedly valued around $1.5 billion.
  • TVS Capital said financial institutions are likely to play a bigger role in India's private equity market.
  • Oracle beat expectations in fiscal Q3, raised its revenue outlook through 2027 on AI demand, and the stock jumped in premarket trading.
  • General Motors recalled 17,050 U.S. vehicles over a suspension issue that could increase crash risk.
  • Tesla exported 20,000 China-made EVs in February, according to CAAM.
  • Oracle rose 8.7% in after-hours trading following its results.
  • Amazon attracted approximately $126 billion in orders for its bond sale in the United States, according to Bloomberg.
  • Salesforce is considering raising $25 billion in debt to finance its share buybacks, according to Bloomberg.
  • AT&T plans to invest $250 billion in its networks in the United States.
  • Boeing wins a $289 million contract with Israel for 5,000 “smart” bombs.
  • The founders of BioNTech plan to leave the group to launch a new company, causing the stock to fall.
  • Starboard has reportedly taken a position in Carmax, according to Bloomberg.
  • Bill Ackman is going to list his Pershing Square hedge fund on the US stock market.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Crowdstrike Holdings, Inc.: DZ Bank AG Research upgrades to buy from sell with a price target raised from USD 470 to USD 490.
  • Intuitive Surgical, Inc.: Citi upgrades to buy from neutral with a target price of USD 590.
  • Nike, Inc.: Barclays upgrades to overweight from market weight and raises the target price from USD 64 to USD 73.
  • Oracle Corporation: Melius Research LLC downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from USD 260 to USD 170.
  • The Jm Smucker Company: Bernstein upgrades to outperform from market perform and raises the target price from USD 121 to USD 145.
  • Vici Properties, Inc.: Mizuho Securities downgrades to neutral from outperform with a target price of USD 30.
  • Aerovironment, Inc.: RBC Capital maintains its outperform rating and reduces the target price from USD 325 to USD 250.
  • Apa Corporation: Goldman Sachs maintains its sell recommendation and raises the target price from USD 23 to USD 29.
  • Micron Technology, Inc.: China Renaissance Research maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 107 to USD 361.
  • Occidental Petroleum Corporation: Goldman Sachs maintains its sell recommendation and raises the target price from USD 41 to USD 54.
  • Permian Resources Corporation: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 17 to USD 22.
  • Shift4 Payments, Inc.: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 85 to USD 50.
  • Transocean Ltd.: SEB Bank maintains its sell recommendation and raises the target price from USD 2.70 to USD 4.15.