That does not mean the danger has passed. It might mean the market had moved too far, too fast, in pricing a direct energy disaster. Before Trump's comments, the dominant assumption was that the region was heading toward a much more severe supply shock, one that could push crude materially higher and leave central banks with even less room to protect growth. After the announcement, investors were forced to recalibrate. A five-day delay is not peace, and it is not even de-escalation in any durable sense. But in a market that had been leaning hard into catastrophe, it was enough to trigger a dramatic repricing.

However, the underlying macro problem is still the same. If energy prices stay high, central banks cannot respond to slowing growth the way they normally would. An oil shock is especially painful because it hits both sides of the economy at once: it weakens activity while pushing inflation higher. That leaves policymakers stuck. They can ease into a demand slowdown, but they cannot ease into a supply shock without risking even worse inflation. 

This is why markets were so rattled in the first place. Before the reversal, investors were dumping stocks, chasing defensives, and pushing volatility higher on the assumption that another inflation impulse was arriving just as monetary policy was already turning less supportive. Oil above $100 a barrel had revived fears that the disinflation story was breaking down. Some banks were already sketching out scenarios in which crude stays above $100 for an extended period, climbs toward $150 over the next two quarters, or, in a more extreme case, goes even higher if regional disruption spreads. Saudi officials, according to reports, have also been preparing for the possibility of a more severe shock if the Strait remains blocked.

That is why Monday's reversal should not be mistaken for calm. It was a relief move, not a resolution. The upcoming economic data will now matter even more. The March business activity surveys in the United States and Europe, along with consumer sentiment readings, are not usually the kind of releases that dominate a session. This time they could carry more weight because they will help show whether businesses and households are absorbing the latest Middle East escalation as a temporary geopolitical scare or the start of something more durable.

This is the real dilemma for investors. When growth weakens, the usual instinct is to look for the Fed or another central bank to step in, cut rates, and stabilize expectations. But an oil shock changes the playbook. If inflation is being pushed higher by energy, policymakers have much less freedom to cushion the economy. That is why interest-rate expectations have become so sensitive. Before the latest escalation, markets still had room for cuts in the second half of the year. As oil surged and central-bank rhetoric hardened, those expectations were pared back aggressively. Monday's drop in crude may ease some of that pressure at the margin, but it does not restore the old safety net.

Trump's role in all of this has become impossible for markets to ignore. His recent comments have swung between threats of severe retaliation and signals that U.S. objectives may already be close to being met. The decision to postpone strikes on Iranian energy sites for five days landed as a meaningful surprise precisely because traders had been bracing for the opposite. That helped revive, at least temporarily, the idea that there is still some version of a "Trump put" - the belief that when markets or economic risks become uncomfortable enough, he may pull back. 

Iran, meanwhile, has continued to threaten retaliation against infrastructure and facilities tied to U.S. interests in the Gulf, while regional governments warn that a broader strike cycle could endanger the global economy. 

In corporate news, the broader tape remained mixed beneath the macro drama. Meta slipped after reports that Mark Zuckerberg is building an AI agent to help him do his job, which is either the future of management or a very expensive way to avoid meetings. Synopsys rose after Elliott Investment Management built a large stake and appeared ready to push for better monetization of its software and services. Super Micro extended its decline after U.S. charges tied to an alleged scheme to smuggle Nvidia chips to China.

In commodities, gold  and other precious metals are up and down after Trump's announcement. 

So while the panic trade has been unwound - let's not mistake that for stability. Trump may have bought the market five days of breathing room, but he did not remove the underlying threat, and he certainly did not restore the old policy safety net. With oil still elevated, central banks constrained, and every headline out of Washington or the Gulf capable of moving prices violently, investors should brace for a bumpy ride this week. 

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: the balance of trade in Spain; the Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States; the consumer confidence flash in the Euro Area; In Australia, the S&P Global Services and Manufacturing PMI flash will be released. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index:100.097
  • Gold: $4,410
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $103.54 (WTI) $91.20
  • United States 10 years: 4.43%
  • BITCOIN: $70,642

In corporate news:

  • Palantir is set to have its Maven AI system formally designated as a U.S. military program of record, which would speed deployment across the armed forces and shift oversight to the Pentagon's AI office.
  • Venture Global said Vitol agreed to buy about 1.5 million tonnes per year of U.S. LNG from the company for five years starting in 2026.
  • OpenAI is reportedly in advanced talks to buy electricity from fusion startup Helion Energy, which is backed by Sam Altman.  It's reportedly planning to double its workforce to about 8,000 by the end of 2026 to narrow the gap with Anthropic.
  • Grab agreed to buy Delivery Hero's Taiwan food-delivery business for $600 million in cash, with closing expected in the second half of 2026.
  • Amazon's "Project Hail Mary" generated about $80.5 million in its North American opening weekend, marking a record box-office debut for Amazon MGM.
  • PepsiCo is sourcing 95% of ingredients locally and hedging commodities to reduce the impact of geopolitical tensions and input-cost pressure.
  • Berkshire Hathaway's National Indemnity will buy a 2.5% stake in Tokio Marine for about $1.8 billion as part of a broader strategic partnership in reinsurance and potential deals.
  • Apollo Global Management agreed to acquire a 37% minority stake in Syntegon from CVC Capital Partners, which will keep the remaining 63%.
  • Tesla and SpaceX plan to build advanced chip factories in Austin, Texas, to produce chips for vehicles, humanoid robots, and space-based AI data centers.
  • Hedge funds increased bearish bets on U.S. equities and shifted toward Europe last week, according to a Goldman Sachs note seen by Reuters.
  • Meta is reportedly encouraging employees to use AI agents internally, while Mark Zuckerberg is building a personal AI agent to streamline his own workflow.
  • Nebius Group raised about $4.34 billion through a private placement of convertible senior notes to help fund data-center construction and expansion.
  • AMD is reportedly discussing a deal to sell 10,000 AI accelerators to South Korean startup Upstage as the customer looks to diversify beyond Nvidia.
  • Activist investor Elliott Investment Management has reportedly built a multibillion-dollar stake in Synopsys and wants the company to generate more profit from software and services.
  • Intuit won an appeals court ruling that allows it to keep advertising TurboTax as free, overturning an FTC administrative decision.
  • Willis Towers Watson partnered with Circle Asia to launch a digital art-insurance platform in Asia for collectors and galleries.
  • Blackstone's flagship private credit fund posted a 0.4% loss in February, its first monthly decline in more than three years.
  • SLMG Beverages, Coca-Cola's largest bottler in India, said it may raise some prices if Middle East war-related packaging costs continue to rise.
  • XPeng posted its first-ever quarterly net profit, helped by stronger sales and margins, sending its Hong Kong-listed shares higher.
  • Bridgepoint confirms it has no intention of making a bid for Spire Healthcare.
  • Webuild wins a €117 million contract for the Mondovì bypass.
  • United Airlines fears an additional $11 billion in fuel costs in 2026.
  • Tire manufacturer Goodyear is cutting hundreds of jobs in Europe.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Apa Corporation: Barclays upgrades to equalweight from underweight with a price target raised from USD 28 to USD 35.
  • Cheniere Energy, Inc.: Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from equal weight with a price target raised from USD 236 to USD 313.
  • Crown Castle Inc.: Wells Fargo downgrades to equalweight from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 90 to USD 85.
  • Mongodb, Inc.: Mizuho Securities upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from USD 290 to USD 325.
  • Pg&E Corporation: Jefferies downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from USD 20 to USD 19.
  • Valvoline Inc.: Stifel upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 40 to USD 42.
  • Venture Global, Inc.: Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from underweight with a price target raised from USD 8 to USD 22.
  • Applied Digital Corporation: Arete Research maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 102 to USD 81.
  • Carnival Corporation: Susquehanna maintains its positive recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 40 to USD 30.
  • Doordash, Inc.: Loop Capital Markets maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 285 to USD 225.
  • Jefferies Financial Group Inc.: BMO Capital Markets maintains its market perform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 68 to USD 42.
  • Lumentum Holdings Inc.: BNP Paribas maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 625 to USD 1040.
  • Murphy Oil Corporation: UBS maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 34 to USD 43.
  • Reddit, Inc.: President Capital Management Corp maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 260 to USD 173.
  • Smurfit Westrock Plc: Davy maintains its outperform rating and reduces the target price from USD 6300 to USD 4600.
  • Warner Music Group Corp.: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 33 to USD 23.