Canada’s telecom policy push is enabling the next phase of wireless growth, and it is coming with strings attached on coverage, pricing, and competition.

The government, through the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC), has already committed about 771 million US dollars to broadband projects since 2019, extending connectivity to more than 320 communities—a scale-up from near-zero targeted funding a decade ago.

According to the CRTC, the latest funding round continues to prioritize rural, remote, and indigenous communities, keeping network investment high even as Canada's telecom market matures.

For telecom operators, that means the next phase of growth looks more like a network expansion race. Companies with established infrastructure, spectrum assets, and national coverage stand to benefit most as data consumption, broadband demand, and service bundling continue to deepen across Canada.

Rogers Communications, Canada's largest wireless and cable operator enters this window with 11,023,000 postpaid mobile phone subscribers as of Q1 26. Rogers' three reportable segments: Wireless, Cable, and Media, face distinct dynamics as the company navigates a regulated, mature domestic market in 2026.

Media masking core

The company's Q1 26 total revenue came in at CAD 5.5bn versus CAD 5bn last year, a 10% y/y increase. The story is simple: Media, though a small segment (accounting for 18% of Q1 26 revenue), was up 82% y/y to CAD 988m from CAD 605m, thanks to the Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment Ltd. (MLSE) acquisition. While wireless service revenue was flat and cable grew just 1% y/y. Top-line growth looks strong, but it’s largely acquisition-led.

Net income attributable to shareholders rose to CAD 438m from CAD 280m last year, up 56.4% y/y. Lower finance costs (down to CAD 443m from CAD 579m) lifted earnings even though cost pressures and competition kept underlying profitability in check.

Cash flow is where things look cleaner. Operating cash flow rose to CAD 1.5bn, up from CAD 1.3bn, and free cash flow hit CAD 776m (up from CAD 318m in Q1 25), largely because of a drop in capex.

Rally missing spark

The stock has done its job this year, but not enough to close the gap with expectations. At CAD 45.1, it’s up 2.4% over the past 12 months, yet still sitting well below the 52-week high of CAD 56.3. Investors chased the cash flow story and earnings growth, but they’re not fully sold on growth just yet.

Valuation reflects that hesitation. The stock trades at 12.2x forward estimated FY 26 earnings, a clear discount to its three-year average of 18.7x. So, either the market thinks the business has structurally slowed, or it doesn’t trust the recent improvements to stick. Given flat core telecom trends, the skepticism isn’t hard to justify.

Street sentiment still leans positive. Twelve out of 15 analysts rate it a “Buy”, and the average target price of CAD 60.4 implies a 34.1% upside. The upside looks good on paper, but the market clearly isn't fully convinced yet.

Watch the cracks

Rogers Communications looks steady on the surface, but the risks are quietly building. The core wireless and cable business isn’t growing much, and competition is starting to bite harder. Pricing power is limited, and churn is creeping up. Regulation isn’t helping either, with more pressure on coverage and affordability. If growth keeps coming from acquisitions and not the core, the story could get harder to defend. Cash flow looks good for now, but cutting investment can’t go on forever.