Pareto reiterates its buy recommendation for truck and bus maker Volvo and raises its target price to 385 kronor from 350 kronor. The research firm is also lifting its 2026-2028 forecasts by about 2 percent, mainly due to positive currency effects and higher assumptions for the North American truck business and Penta.
Pareto believes Volvo could raise its market outlook for the North American truck market to around 275,000 vehicles for 2026, from the current 265,000, after continued strong order intake in the second quarter.
Ahead of the report, the firm expects organic sales growth of 4 percent, an adjusted EBIT margin of 11.8 percent, a 9 percent increase in truck order intake and a 1 percent rise in deliveries. The second-quarter forecast is in line with the market consensus, while Pareto is about 3 percent above consensus for 2026-2028.
The research firm continues to see support from strong demand in the aftermarket and a gradual recovery in North America.
AB Volvo is the leading European truck maker and No. 3 worldwide. Net sales break down by activity as follows:
- sales of trucks (66.2%): 202,911 vehicles sold in 2025 (names Volvo, Renault, Eicher and Mack);
- sales of construction equipment (16.7%): excavators, loaders, backhoes, hydraulic shovels, graders, dump trucks, etc.;
- financial services (5.4%);
- bus and chassis sales (5.1%): world's No. 2 largest manufacturer;
- sales of parts, control systems, and marine and industrial motors (4.2%): for commerce and cruise ships and for industrial applications (irrigation units, lifting trucks, electrical generators, etc.);
- other (2.4%).
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: Europe (43.1%), North America (29.3%), Asia (11.5%), South America (9.7%), and Africa & Oceania (6.4%).
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