The proposal, presented Tuesday at an emergency meeting of the 32 member countries, aims to calm a market that has tightened abruptly because of the war in Iran. In the background: the near-blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the choke point through which nearly one-fifth of the world's oil transits, and which, when it seizes up, is enough to shake the entire global economy.

The WSJ notes that this initiative responds to an almost founding scenario for the IEA: a direct threat to Gulf oil flows. Since February 28, the date of the first US and Israeli strikes against Iran, crude oil prices have surged. And even if they have pulled back sharply after rising well above $100 a barrel for Brent, they remain $20 above their level just two weeks ago.

Fear of a chain reaction

The lull remains relative: fuels, especially diesel, continue to rise, and economists already fear the well-known trio of energy crises (inflation, stockmarket strains and motorists exasperated at the pump). Fatih Birol, the IEA's executive director, recalled that member countries collectively hold about 1.8 billion barrels, enough to offset some 124 days of supply losses from the Gulf.

Still, the weapon of strategic reserves is no magic wand. The Wall Street Journal notes that previous releases have sometimes had a paradoxical effect: in 2022, they were initially interpreted as a sign the crisis was more severe than anticipated, before ultimately helping to ease prices. By contrast, the 1991 example is seen as a model: at the launch of Operation Desert Storm, the coordinated release of US and allied reserves triggered an immediate drop of more than 20% in prices.

On the morning of March 11, the spot price of a barrel of Brent was trading around $89.70, down 1.8%.