The joint US-Israeli bombing of Tehran has sealed the failure of negotiations over Iran's uranium enrichment. After Ayatollah Khamenei paid for his obstinacy with his life, Iran carried out its threats of regional destabilisation. The Islamic Republic retaliated by targeting the Gulf's oil monarchies.

"To friendly countries that were deliberately targeted by Revolutionary Guard missiles and drones, and dragged into a war they did not choose - Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Jordan - France expresses its full support and complete solidarity,” said Jean-Noël Barrot, Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs.

"[France] stands ready, in accordance with the agreements binding it to its partners and the principles of collective self-defence provided for under international law, to take part in their defence,” he said.

France is indeed committed to its Gulf allies through several regional agreements:

  • France and the United Arab Emirates are bound by a defence agreement signed in 1995 and reinforced in 2012. At the request of the Emirati authorities and in line with this agreement, French forces stationed in the UAE - some 900 personnel - contribute to the defence of the territory and the protection of Emirati sovereignty.
  • France and Iraq are linked by an agreement on defence cooperation, signed on 16 November 2009. This cooperation has often taken shape within Operation CHAMMAL against Daesh, in which France supported Iraq through air support as well as training and equipment actions.
  • France maintains a military and defence agreement with Jordan, signed on 2 December 1995, focused on operational cooperation and training. - - France is also bound by defence agreements with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait.
  • There is no bilateral defence agreement between France and Israel. France is an active diplomatic player in regional security and regularly engages in dialogue with Israel on security issues and the fight against terrorism.
  • France has pre-positioned forces in strategic locations. It has 1,500 military personnel in Djibouti and 750 in the United Arab Emirates. Some 1,100 personnel are also deployed as part of the operation known as "Chammal” in Iraq.

"The escalation of tensions with southern Iran reinforces the structural growth cycle, creating immediate positive spillovers for air defence, munitions and operational readiness,” commented Saïma Hussain, Aerospace & Defense sector specialist at AlphaValue.

The analyst expects an acceleration in purchases of air and missile defence systems, increased urgency around munitions replenishment and the expansion of industrial capacity, as well as a structural rise in operational readiness and sustainment spending across NATO and allied countries.

For AlphaValue, the main beneficiaries are:

Rheinmetall: the leading short-term winner thanks to its exposure to munitions and ground-based air defence. Thales: a strong position in radars and integrated air defence systems. Leonardo: positive leverage thanks to its expertise in defence electronics and sensing. BAE Systems: a distinctive position thanks to its strong US presence (more than 45% of sales), with exposure to combat vehicles, electronic warfare, munitions and US mission systems.

Secondary beneficiary:

Dassault Aviation: demand prospects for fighter aircraft are improving structurally, but procurement lead times are lengthening. "Overall, this escalation confirms the durability of the defence sector's growth cycle,” the analyst concluded.