Bitcoin follows a predictable four-year cycle, driven by scarcity after each halving event, which occurs roughly every four years. With the latest halving in April 2024, the cycle’s peak could happen anytime in 2025. However, while Bitcoin's future remains uncertain, current data suggests the market has yet to reach its peak. Expect some significant price dips on the way to the top. Still, expect some significant dips along the way.

BTC cycles

According to on-chain analytics company Glassnode, we are roughly approximately midway through the current cycle, counting from its lows. Historically, most Bitcoin’s all-time highs have occurred in the third year. Thus far, the 2023 cycle has mirrored the 2015-2017 cycle almost perfectly. However, it's unlikely that this pattern will continue. In 2017, Bitcoin's all-time high multiplied its price by 113. Given that price appreciation has slowed with each successive cycle, the expected multiplier this time would be closer to 10. This reflects the maturation of the market and the increasing capital required to elevate Bitcoin’s valuation from a multi-billion-dollar to a multi-trillion-dollar asset.

Looking at the 2023-2026 cycle, we may be entering the second euphoric phase. In both prior cycles, this stage was marked by a sharp acceleration in price.

Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Prediction

Another key indicator, Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Prediction, provides another perspective. Conceptualized by Matt Crosby and built on the original indicator by Philip Swift, both analysts at Bitcoin Magazine Pro, this charting tool has proved itself quite accurate in predicting market peaks. The updated indicator calculates the rate of change of two key BTC moving averages (111D and 350DMAx2) over the past 14 days and projects when these averages will cross.

Historically, the crossover of these moving averages has signalled Bitcoin’s cycle tops. The original Pi Cycle Top indicator correctly identified Bitcoin’s previous cycle peaks within three days of the event. Currently, projections suggest the moving averages will cross on September 17, 2025, marking a potential market top.

Rising liquidity

Rising global liquidity further supports a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. Often measured by the M2 money supply, liquidity reflects the total volume of currency and near-money available in the financial system. This includes physical cash, deposits, and money market accounts. M2 is an important indicator because it shows the potential for spending and investment. When central banks lower interest rates or implement quantitative easing, they inject fresh liquidity into the system. As liquidity expands, it creates opportunities for increased investment in risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Historically, Bitcoin bull markets have coincided with periods of rapid global liquidity growth (chart source: BGeometrics). When central banks flood the system with cash, investors are more likely to seek higher returns in non-correlated assets like Bitcoin.

Interestingly, while Bitcoin is still considered risk-on, its nature of “digital gold” could transform its narrative into a “safe haven”. With each passing year, Bitcoin proves itself a better store of value compared to the depreciating dollar. As a result, more investors may turn to Bitcoin to protect their wealth in the face of a weakening greenback.

BTC CME gap

Despite the optimistic outlook, the road to Bitcoin's cycle peak may not be without turbulence. One potential risk lies in the open Bitcoin futures gap on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), located between $78,000 and $81,000.

In traditional finance, candlestick gaps occur when there’s a discrepancy between an asset’s closing price at the end of one trading session and its opening price in the next. Because Bitcoin trades continuously, the CME must account for weekend price movements when it reopens after the weekend. This often leads to notable gaps, which traders use as indicators for potential price movements. Historically, these gaps tend to close over time as the market corrects following an initial overreaction. This behavior has become so predictable that it may now create a self-fulfilling prophecy. Traders, anticipating gap closure, may actively drive the price in that direction.

Interestingly, as noted by the X user IncomeShark, a new, smaller gap has formed between $100,250 and $102,000 over the past weekend. This could indicate that the "tariff war scare" was a fleeting concern, and that Bitcoin’s price still maintains a bullish outlook moving forward.