Canada’s mining industry is finding itself in a high-stakes tech race worth hundreds of billions. Indeed, the industry has pumped a massive CAD 112bn (USD 82.2bn) into the economy in 2025, according to Natural Resources Canada. It helps that the world is currently obsessed with critical minerals such as copper and lithium to power the green energy shift.
Right in the middle of it all is Hudbay Minerals. After they snagged the Copper Mountain Mine in British Columbia back in 2023, Hudbay Minerals became Canada’s third largest copper producer. Even after a chaotic 2025 filled with wildfire evacuations in Manitoba and brutal winter power outages, they still managed to hit their production targets.
We mean it when we say it. The company has officially extended a winning streak that has dominated for over a decade. Hudbay Minerals met Its consolidated copper and gold production guidance for the 11th and 5th consecutive years, respectively.
Weathering the storm
Despite the overall success, Q3 25 was a bit of a rough ride for Hudbay's production. Copper hit 24,205 tonnes, down 19.2% from the previous quarter (29,956 tonnes) and down 22.8% y/y (31,354 tonnes).
Gold followed the same trend, coming in at 53,581 ounces—that's 4.8% lower than Q2 25 (56,271 ounces) and a pretty steep 39.8% drop from the 89,073 ounces they put up in Q3 2024. Even silver felt the pinch, with 730,394 ounces produced, marking a 10.4% dip from last quarter and a 25.9% slump y/y.
The company got slammed with a bunch of issues over the quarter. First, they were forced into mandatory wildfire evacuations in Manitoba, which put their operations on ice for most of the quarter. Then, in Peru, they had temporary social unrest and huge ocean swells in Peru caused them to delay a 20,000 dry metric tonnes shipment of copper concentrate—worth approximately $60m (USD), no less. However, gold production exceeded expectations due to high-grade ore from the Pampacancha satellite deposit.
A gold-sponsored comeback
Hudbay Minerals reported Q3 25 revenue of USD 346.8m, which represented a 28.6% decline y/y. Despite the lower operational revenue, net profit rose to USD 222.4m, up from USD 49.7m in Q3 24.
In some good news, Hudbay reaffirmed its full-year guidance for copper and gold. Preliminary production results for Q4 25 released on January 16, 2026, show strong operational performance with approximately 33,069 tonnes of copper produced and 84,298 ounces of gold produced.
Aside, in January 2026, Hudbay Minerals finalized its landmark USD 600m strategic investment from Mitsubishi Corporation. Mitsubishi is covering 30% of all future construction costs, meaning Hudbay Minerals doesn’t have to raid its piggy bank or rely solely on its own cash to build a copper mine: the stockmarket seems to have taken note.
Breaking new ground
Driven by strong operational performance in Q4 25 and the Mitsubishi joint venture, the stock has seen risen by over 18.4% in January 2026 alone and over 169.2% in the last 12 months. All that hype has pushed their market cap to around USD 9.4bn.
In fact, on January 28, 2026, the stock peaked at a record USD 25.6. Despite this historic high, there is an upside potential of 7.6% from current levels. Moreover, it is still 45.3% below the high price target estimate (USD 34.6). Analysts remain optimistic about Hudbay Mineral’s growth trajectory. Out of 20 analysts studying the stock, all bar one - 19 are buyers.
The catch
While Hudbay Minerals is on a roll with the Mitsubishi deal, they aren’t totally out of the woods. Their biggest hurdle remains in the sheer complexity of building the Copper World mine in Arizona. Mining projects come with budget overruns and construction delays that can spook investors. They are also heavily tied to the wild swings of the copper and gold markets.
Then there is the geopolitical side—operating in Peru means they may have to navigate tricky social and political tensions that have historically caused work stoppages at their Constancia mine. In March 2025, mandatory wildfire evacuations in northern Manitoba disrupted operations at Snow Lake for several weeks, impacting production forecasts. What we are getting at is this: Environmental volatility is now a direct operational risk for Hudbay Minerals.
