The preliminary agreement between Washington and Tehran dominated the opening of the Evian G7. Over recent weeks, the Middle East has monopolized political agendas, military resources, energy discussions, Washington's focus and media headlines. Yet another conflict continues to destabilize the global balance. In Ukraine, the war sparked by the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, has just crossed a symbolic threshold: it has now lasted longer than the First World War.

The interim deal reached with Iran overnight Sunday offers a window of opportunity. The American president arrives in Evian bolstered by a diplomatic success and an appetite to resolve other conflicts. European leaders intend to seize this momentum to put Ukraine back at the center of the table.

Ukraine Sells a New Narrative

On the ground, the Russian army is no longer advancing with its former ease. According to several Western estimates, its losses are now valued at over 1m soldiers killed or wounded since February 2022. Recently, The Economist even cited a Russian casualty rate of approximately 35,000 per month. Meanwhile, Ukraine is striking deeper into Russia, specifically targeting the energy and logistics infrastructure that fuels Moscow's war effort.

Even Russia's symbolic displays are losing their luster. The May 9 parade was significantly scaled back. The usual demonstrations of armored vehicles and heavy equipment were absent, overshadowed by the threat of Ukrainian drones. Moscow has long projected an image of untouchable power, but Kyiv is now dismantling that narrative.

This is exactly the kind of story that appeals to Donald Trump. He favors power dynamics, clear winners, and deals he can frame as personal triumphs. For Zelensky, the objective is not merely to ask for aid. It is, above all, to present Ukraine as the side regaining the upper hand, potentially allowing Washington to broker a peace on more favorable terms.

Trump Aims to End the Wars

According to Reuters, following a meeting described as "very positive" with Zelensky and G7 leaders, the American president stated that he would do "everything he can" to end the conflict. "Russia must make a deal," he added. When questioned about a possible reinstatement of sanctions previously eased on certain Russian oil shipments, Trump suggested that Washington could soon take action, now that oil flows are resuming following the Iranian agreement. "The oil is flowing now. We will soon be in a position to do it," he declared. While his phrasing does not explicitly reflect a total pivot to the Ukrainian camp, it demonstrates that the Europeans are successfully shifting the American discourse.

Their goal is to convince Trump that previous paths toward compromise were too favorable to Moscow. The strategy being championed in Evian combines diplomatic openness, economic pressure on Russia, and the military reinforcement of Ukraine, particularly regarding air defense.

Macron Seeks to Maintain the European Line

For Emmanuel Macron, this Evian G7 is also an opportunity to cement his support for Ukraine and establish it as a top priority for the remainder of his term as president. Indeed, he is seeking to preserve a unified European front in dealings with Washington. The July 14 celebrations are expected to extend this policy, with the anticipated presence of members of the "coalition of the willing," focused on providing security guarantees to Kyiv.

Europe is signaling to Moscow that, beyond financing Ukrainian resistance, it intends to help build the security framework that will follow an eventual ceasefire. It is also a reminder that peace cannot be negotiated solely between Washington and Moscow.

A Window, Not Yet a Turning Point

Nevertheless, the G7 alone will not end the war. Vladimir Putin has so far shown no sign of openness to direct negotiations on Kyiv's terms. Russia continues to strike Ukraine and can still rely on a war economy that, while fragile, remains fully mobilized. As for the Iranian deal, it remains preliminary and could still monopolize American attention if technical discussions falter.