This week is shaping up to be a test of how much bad news markets can absorb before they stop pretending every shock is temporary. The mood on Wall Street has turned sour again: U.S. stock futures fell Monday morning after weekend talks between Washington and Tehran ended without a deal. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures were all down by between 0.5 and 1%. Oil climbed back above $100 a barrel. The VIX, Wall Street's preferred measure of nerves, rose above 21.

Then comes earnings season, led by Goldman Sachs on Monday and then JPMorgan, Citigroup, and other big banks on Tuesday. Investors will be looking well beyond the headline profit numbers. They want to know how the war in the Middle East, oil above $100, and renewed geopolitical brinkmanship are affecting dealmaking, trading, lending, and corporate confidence.

Then there is inflation. Tuesday's producer-price data matters more than usual because it may show how the jump in energy costs is feeding into the wider economy. March consumer-price data already showed the biggest annual increase in nearly four years, driven by a record surge in gasoline and diesel prices. That has revived fears of a stagflationary shock: slower growth paired with stickier inflation.

Over the week-end, U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan collapsed. After 21 hours of negotiations, there was no breakthrough. That should not surprise anyone, since the two countries have not had diplomatic relations for nearly half a century and are coming off around 40 days of war. Iran's nuclear program remains the central obstacle.

President Trump responded by hardening the U.S. posture. He announced that a blockade would begin at 10 a.m. Eastern on Monday, targeting maritime traffic entering or leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas. He has also reportedly considered renewed limited strikes on Iran, with a broader bombing campaign seen as less likely. In effect, the White House is trying to increase pressure on Tehran while keeping the situation just shy of a wider regional war.

The longer disruption lasts at the Straight of Hormuz, the more likely higher oil prices become a long-term feature. Trump himself acknowledged over the weekend that U.S. gasoline prices could remain elevated until the midterm elections in November. 

There is one limited piece of relief: Saudi Arabia says its East-West pipeline is back to full capacity, around 7 million barrels a day, days after an Iranian attack had damaged the infrastructure.

The market is punishing fuel users, rewarding fuel producers: travel stocks, especially airlines and cruise lines, fell on fears of rising fuel costs. Delta, JetBlue, Carnival, United Airlines, and Royal Caribbean all came under pressure. Energy shares moved the other way. Chevron, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, Diamondback, and Occidental all benefited from the jump in crude. Crypto-linked stocks slipped as bitcoin fell more than 3%. Palantir looked set to recover some losses after getting hammered last week by worries about newer AI competition. Sandisk rose ahead of its expected addition to the Nasdaq-100 on April 20.

And to end on a side note, over the weekend, Trump attacked the pope for speaking about peace, as though that were an outrageous case of mission drift, and then posted a very strange image of himself cast as Jesus healing the sick.  The episode was sort of absurd, but also revealing: allies, investors, and voters are being asked to make sense not only of a widening geopolitical crisis, but of a presidency that now seems to swing hourly between commander-in-chief and full-time internet eccentric.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: BOJ Governor Ueda's speech in Japan; In the United States, existing home sales MoM and total existing home sales. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 98.953
  • Gold: $4,710
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $102.80 (WTI) $104.42
  • United States 10 years: 4.33%
  • BITCOIN: $70,802

In corporate news:

  • EQT, KKR and Advent are reportedly exploring a possible takeover of PolyPeptide Group, although the discussions remain preliminary and unconfirmed.
  • OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said his San Francisco home was attacked with a Molotov cocktail, with police reporting no injuries and the suspect later arrested after also threatening the company's headquarters. Meanwhile, the company said it has secured its first permanent London office, due to open in 2027 with capacity for 544 employees as it expands its UK presence.
  • JBS reached and won ratification for a new two-year labor agreement at its Colorado Swift Beef plant, ending a dispute that had led workers to strike over unfair labor practice claims.
  • Northrop Grumman launched its upgraded Cygnus XL spacecraft aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 to deliver nearly 11,000 pounds of supplies to the International Space Station.
  • Danaher unit Beckman Coulter Diagnostics received a CE mark in Europe for its rapid Access MeMed BV infection test, which helps distinguish bacterial from viral infections in about 20 minutes.
  • Baker Hughes agreed to sell its Waygate Technologies business to Hexagon for about $1.45 billion in cash, with closing expected in the second half of 2026.
  • Trellus Health renewed its licensing agreement with Pfizer for patient-support educational content used in its inflammatory bowel disease digital application.
  • AbbVie signed an exclusive global licensing deal with Haisco Pharmaceutical for early-stage pain treatments, with Haisco eligible for $30 million upfront and up to $715 million in milestones plus royalties.
  • IBM agreed to pay $17 million to settle a U.S. government probe into alleged non-compliance with anti-discrimination requirements in federal contracts, without admitting liability.
  • BioNTech and DualityBio said their antibody-drug conjugate trastuzumab pamirtecan met the primary efficacy endpoint in a phase 2 endometrial cancer cohort.
  • Meta Platforms was ordered by the Philippines government to strengthen measures against “panic-inducing” misinformation on its platforms related to energy prices and supply disruptions.
  • NIO reported that its 2025 net loss narrowed while revenue rose 33%, signaling improved financial performance despite remaining in the red.
  • Tesla announces the imminent rollout of its autonomous driving system in the Netherlands.
  • Vineyard Wind is suing GE Vernova to prevent it from abandoning a wind farm project.
  • Blackstone is considering a $2 billion IPO for its data center acquisition company.
  • McDonald's will add energy drinks and craft sodas to its menus, according to the WSJ.
  • Cisco is reportedly in talks to acquire the AI security startup Astrix for at least $250 million, according to The Information.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Coherent Corp.: William O'Neil & Co Incorporated initiates coverage with a buy recommendation.
  • Conocophillips: Gerdes Energy Research LLC upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 145 to USD 149.
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company: Raymond James downgrades to outperform from strong buy and reduces the target price from USD 30 to USD 29.
  • Masco Corporation: Evercore ISI upgrades to outperform from in-line with a target price of USD 78.
  • Nebius Group: Freedom Capital Markets downgrades to hold from buy and raises the target price from USD 108 to USD 154.
  • Nike, Inc.: HSBC downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from USD 90 to USD 48.
  • Occidental Petroleum Corporation: Gerdes Energy Research LLC upgrades to buy from neutral and raises the target price from USD 68 to USD 71.
  • Oshkosh Corporation: Citi downgrades to neutral from buy and reduces the target price from USD 180 to USD 170.
  • Pultegroup, Inc.: Evercore ISI upgrades to outperform from in-line with a price target raised from USD 143 to USD 146.
  • T-Mobile Us, Inc.: KeyBanc Capital Markets upgrades to overweight from market weight with a target price of USD 260.
  • Toll Brothers, Inc.: Evercore ISI upgrades to outperform from in-line with a price target raised from USD 174 to USD 176.
  • Builders Firstsource, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 110 to USD 85.
  • Costar Group, Inc.: Baird maintains its outperform rating and reduces the target price from USD 73 to USD 56.
  • Doximity, Inc.: KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 38 to USD 30.
  • Ge Vernova Inc.: Citi maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 779 to USD 1110.
  • Gen Digital Inc.: RBC Capital maintains its sector perform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 29 to USD 22.
  • Lyondellbasell Industries N.v.: BMO Capital Markets maintains its market perform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 68 to USD 82.
  • Micron Technology, Inc.: Arete Research maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 562 to USD 852.
  • Mohawk Industries, Inc.: Evercore ISI maintains its in-line recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 143 to USD 112.
  • Nuscale Power Corporation: Goldman Sachs maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 14 to USD 10.
  • Qualys, Inc.: RBC Capital maintains its sector perform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 134 to USD 85.
  • Sandisk Corporation: Arete Research maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 1000 to USD 1800.
  • Western Digital Corporation: Arete Research maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 360 to USD 435.