Slowly but surely, oil prices are climbing. In early April, the announcement of a ceasefire offered a glimmer of hope for an end to the crisis. Brent crude then fell back below $90. This morning, it's back up at $108.

In the meantime, while the ceasefire was indefinitely extended by Donald Trump, no progress has been made in negotiations. Pending a diplomatic breakthrough, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed. Furthermore, it is no longer just Iran blocking the strait; the US Navy is now intercepting Iranian vessels.

Consequently, the situation in the oil market continues to tighten. According to Goldman Sachs, oil production from Gulf countries is down by 14.5 million barrels per day from pre-conflict levels in Iran. Global oil demand hovers at around 100 million barrels per day.

Even if the blockade were lifted tomorrow, it would likely take time to restore normalized traffic. A few days ago, the Washington Post reported that it would take six months to de-mine the Strait of Hormuz, especially as Iran reportedly continues its mining operations. According to Axios, the Revolutionary Guard allegedly laid new mines last week.

Despite higher prices, there appears to be little leeway to increase production in other regions. A Dallas Fed study highlighted that American executives do not expect to significantly ramp up production over the next two years. They do not believe the high prices resulting from the war in Iran will persist. This view is shared by the markets: the December Brent futures contract is trading at around $86, approximately $20 below the June maturity.

CEOs of oil majors are also expressing concern. "If this lasts another two or three months, we will enter a world of energy scarcity, which Asian countries are already suffering from," stated TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné on Friday at the World Policy Conference in Chantilly.

Indeed, Asia is the region hardest hit by this crisis, already facing shortage situations. Europe could be the next continent affected. Last week, Lufthansa announced the cancellation of nearly 20,000 flights in anticipation of fuel shortages. "I think the aviation sector is clearly an area where the situation is likely to worsen in the coming weeks," noted Chevron CEO Mike Wirth.

For the past two months, oil prices have essentially reflected a short-term shock. However, tension in the physical market is increasing as the blockade persists. The decoupling between the two can only be resolved through higher prices.

This morning, Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts, now anticipating Brent crude to average $90 in Q4 2026.