In reality, this was only a very modest act of divination: statistically, the combination of two elements-unreasonable promises from management on the one hand, and overly strong investor expectations on the other-remains an almost certain path to a severe disappointment.

A very real disappointment in 2025 for Dassault Systèmes, with revenue showing no growth at all-4% at constant exchange rates, admittedly, but 0% at current exchange rates, which management "conveniently" omits from the headline of its press release. The company's operating margin is being preserved and material gains are even expected next year, no doubt helped by job cuts.

The year now ending therefore marks the software publisher's first interruption to growth since the subprime crisis. MarketScreener analysts believe this underperformance is a telling signal of the very strained economic climate at the moment-a topic, all in all, discussed rather little in the media, which only have eyes for the AI boom.

Dassault Systèmes' cash profit-or free cash flow-is also virtually unchanged, almost to the euro, from last year's level. This is the fifth year of profit stagnation for the software publisher, which is therefore indeed at a pivotal stage in its development-a stage in which, unfortunately, it appears to be stuck, for the moment.

In particular, the performance of its life sciences segment disappoints again in 2025, with a 6% drop in revenue at current exchange rates. In this respect, the acquisition of Medidata for €5bn in 2018 has so far failed to deliver the expected results; adjusted for inflation, segment growth has been very modest over the past five years, in a sector that is itself also deeply depressed.

That said, one can choose to see the glass as half full. Dassault Systèmes' platform remains a true industry standard, and even something of a de facto monopoly with a largely captive customer base. This privileged competitive position, it should be noted, has so far never really translated into genuine pricing power.

Like many software publishers, the French group is also being hit hard by mistrust from investors, who view the emergence of AI as a threat. On this point, it is permissible to think that, for the publisher, it is an opportunity rather than a threat... But each reader can make up their own mind here...

Dassault Systèmes' valuation has largely adjusted to the paradigm shift. While it hovered at around 35x free cash flow over the past decade, it has now fallen back to 20x. The group must urgently return to growth to justify any potential multiple expansion. 

Unfortunately, no development of that kind appears to be taking shape in 2026.