First Friday of the month, jobs report. It is a ritual that we are used to, but one that we will not get this Friday.

The three-day shutdown, triggered by the stalemate over funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), has again delayed the release of statistics by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The January jobs report will therefore be published on Wednesday, February 11, while the inflation report has been pushed back to Friday, December 13.

Data pointing the wrong way

Still, investors this week have had a series of data points on the US labor market. And they are not heading in the right direction.

Yesterday, the JOLTS survey showed that the number of open positions fell to its lowest level since 2020, while weekly initial jobless claims rose to 231,000.

On Wednesday, the ADP survey reported just 22,000 private-sector job creations, half the expected figure (46,000).

But the most striking figure of the week probably comes from the Challenger, Gray & Christmas report, which says the number of layoffs planned by US companies totalled 108,435 in January. That is the highest level recorded for any January since 2009.

Several major US companies announced layoffs last week (Amazon, UPS, Nike…). According to a tally by the Financial Times, a total of 52,000 job cuts were announced over a few days.

What if the dissenters were right?

If we try to take stock of all these data points, there is still the story of this somewhat strange labor market, the "low hiring, low firing" balance we have been describing for months. But we also know this balance is fragile, and there is a risk that, in the end, layoffs will rise and the unemployment rate will climb again.

In any case this week's data seems fairly at odds with the Fed's messaging last week. The statement issued after the meeting no longer mentioned downside risks in the labor market, instead highlighting "signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate" to justify keeping interest rates unchanged after three consecutive cuts.

It is therefore Christopher Waller's concerns that appear to be materializing. He voted against the status quo last week, as did his colleague Stephen Miran. "There is considerable doubt about future job growth, which suggests that a substantial deterioration in the labor market is a major risk," Governor Waller wrote last week in a statement explaining his vote.