The first - a positive one - will stress an almost guaranteed volume of orders for the chipmaker, which, after its partnership with OpenAI locks in one of the five most strategic major accounts in the world.
In return, the warrants granted to Meta give Mark Zuckerberg's group a tenth of AMD's equity by 2031. They are, however, conditional. In particular, Meta must meet all of its purchase commitments, and AMD's share price must triple, which would value Lisa Su's group at a market capitalization of $1 trillion.
Meta's purchase commitment covers 6 gigawatts of AI computing power. The central question is how much this represents in hard cash.
In a market suffering from chronic shortages, Nvidia says it generates $35bn in revenue per gigawatt. It seems prudent to apply a discount for AMD, and perhaps to factor in a general decline in prices as competition inevitably develops.
Let us therefore assume $20bn of revenue per gigawatt for AMD. By that logic, the chip designer would give up $100bn in market value in exchange for $120bn in revenue. With margins half those of Nvidia's exceptionally high levels, that would amount to around $30bn in profits.
Surprise: that is exactly the increase in market capitalization observed yesterday.
A second, more cynical reading, will wonder why, in this context of chronic shortages and a gold rush among all the "hyper scalers", AMD is resorting to such mechanisms to secure orders.
Admittedly, the quick back-of-the-envelope calculation sketched above can be adjusted at will. But it already appears relatively optimistic compared with AMD's historical margins. In that respect, it is hard not to see AMD here acknowledging its position as number two behind Nvidia.
Unless Lisa Su, who aims to multiply revenue in her data-centre segment by ten by 2030, is in fact looking to bet on a virtuous knock-on effect, prompting other clients to follow in the footsteps of Meta and OpenAI.
If that really happened, and if AMD did indeed reach a $1 trillion market capitalization, AMD shareholders could expect five exceptional years, well worth giving up 10% of their company to Meta at the end of the period.
But with "if"s, you can imagine anything, in one direction or the other...



















