Keith Bortoluzzi

Japan's in trouble, or is it?

The yen hit a 40-year low, Tokyo spent a record $54bn (¥8.45tn) in a single day defending it, Washington joined in for the first time in 15 years. The same week, Japan's megabanks printed record profits. What does it all mean?

14 August 2026 at 01:05 am AEST

Is it time to buy Korea?

The KOSPI fell 38.6% from its June peak. Samsung & SK Hynix make half the index. The exchange has halted trading more times this year than in all of 2008. Meanwhile, Korean defence, nuclear, gas turbine components, and cosmetics exports just set a new record.

05 August 2026 at 11:46 pm AEST

When Refining Is Worth More Than Crude

Refining has been the best performing corner of the energy complex this year. Valero and Marathon have nearly doubled since January. Phillips 66 has trailed its peers but still delivered roughly twice the return of the broad energy index. On the other hand, the S&P 500 Energy sector has managed only a fraction of that.

30 July 2026 at 08:54 pm AEST

Behind the meter: AI late cycle names to own

A gas turbine ordered from Siemens or GE Vernova today arrives in 2029, and if you want it connected to the regional electricity grid, you'll have to wait even longer. But AI buildout can't wait 3-4 more years, which is why the only solution right now is: bring your own power.

24 July 2026 at 01:37 am AEST

What energy exposure should you own if Hormuz reopens?

Last week the United States and Iran announced a framework deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping chokepoint handling 20% of global seaborne oil.

30 June 2026 at 05:18 pm AEST

Do you own enough agricultural commodities?

Most investors are actively debating whether inflation is temporary or structural. But if you look past the headline numbers, a massive correlation is hiding in plain sight.

04 June 2026 at 05:42 pm AEST

The great energy reshuffle

Hormuz still carries about 20% of the world's oil & gas, and April's disruption opened an 11.1 million bpd supply gap. American major services, pipes & materials manufacturers, and specialised players now sit at the center of energy security pricing…who wins and who loses?

23 April 2026 at 06:17 pm AEST

Why is Israel's stock market so resilient?

With the S&P 500 down 7.5% YTD, Nasdaq down 10.5%, and crude oil reaching $105/barrel, there's one country posting positive returns since the year began. Israel. But the question is, why?

04 April 2026 at 03:35 am AEDT

We still don't have enough copper

Copper production will peak in 2030 at 27 million tonnes if we have no new mines starting production. Only 5% of new mine discoveries happened in the last decade. To create a new mine from exploration to production, it takes 17 years on average, and the US average lies at 29 years.

25 March 2026 at 02:03 am AEDT

Death of Memory Chips: timing its fall

Samsung Electronics crossed $1 trillion in market cap, SK Hynix is nearing $500 billion, and the KOSPI is up 30% YTD on the back of two stocks. The last time memory stocks looked this good was May 2018. How long will it last?

13 March 2026 at 10:12 pm AEDT

Let's get Hormuz straight

44% of the world's traded sulphur, 31% of its urea, 20% of its LNG and 20% of its crude oil all squeeze through this tiny shipping lane and Iran just shut it down. The worst hit is not only oil, but fertilisers for Western agriculture & Asian petrochem producers and the winners are sitting thousands of miles away.

06 March 2026 at 09:51 pm AEDT

You don't own enough LatAm

MSCI LatAm delivered +56% in 2025 vs. 16.3% for the S&P 500. The AI-driven tech rotation into real assets has collided with three structural drivers in LatAm for a decade-long bull run. And you're barely exposed to it.

27 February 2026 at 01:37 am AEDT

Defence 2.0: Next great catchup trade?

NATO allies agreed to spend 5% of GDP on defence by 2035. Most only just hit 2%. The 2022-2024 defense rally rewarded obvious names across the board. The second leg, however, will reward precision.

20 February 2026 at 02:19 am AEDT

Software Apocalypse: It's the model not the sector.

Last week, public software companies lost $300B in market value in a single session. Leading banks have already coined the term "SaaSpocalypse". Forward P/E multiples across the sector compressed from 39x to 21x in four months. The culprit? This blog post from Anthropic (1).

13 February 2026 at 03:23 am AEDT

What can break the gold rally?

Gold crashed 19.6% over the past weekend in reaction to Warsh nomination by Trump. Silver fell 39% in the same timeframe. Is the gold rally broken forever?

09 February 2026 at 07:17 pm AEDT

Risks are mounting, time to short Japan?

Japan's 40-year bond yield hit an all-time high of 4.24%, regional banks are sitting on record unrealised losses of $21.3 billion, and nearly 80% of Japanese mortgages are variable-rate. Will Japanese held foreign assets be enough to save them?

29 January 2026 at 05:49 am AEDT

AI Slowdown: a blessing in disguise?

Inference now accounts for half of all AI compute workloads. By the end of this year, it will be two-thirds. That single sentence explains more about where AI investing is headed than anything else you'll read this quarter.

25 January 2026 at 04:00 am AEDT

Will Trump finally get Greenland? What to expect for your portfolio and how to play it

Greenland hosts 25 of 34 EU-designated critical raw materials, sits atop the only U.S. military installation above the Arctic Circle, and controls emerging shipping lanes that could cut East Asia-to-Europe transit times by 7,000 kilometers.

16 January 2026 at 05:25 am AEDT

Venezuela: Panama 2.0? How to play the reconstruction of a failed state

We all know the regime was on borrowed time. But even for seasoned geopolitical analysts, the speed of collapse was breathtaking. What could go wrong (or right) for your portfolio now?

05 January 2026 at 05:13 am AEDT

Silver squeeze: catching up to gold, $100 ahead?

(Editor's note: Silver crossed the symbolic $80-an-ounce threshold for the first time in its history on Monday, climbing as high as $84, but fell 11% later because the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) once again increased margin requirements on futures contracts, for the second time in two weeks, forcing the most exposed traders to cut their positions. The sell-off was also amplified by a series of posts on X, including one by Elon Musk referring to new Chinese restrictions on silver exports) Silver just broke a 40-year price record by shooting past $81/oz, setting a new all time high. It has also outperformed gold, decoupling from the "common knowledge" of silver and gold prices being in tandem.

29 December 2025 at 10:29 pm AEDT

Guochao 2: Chinese video games take over

Tencent & NetEase dominate a domestic $50B market, yet trade at 55% discounts to their Western & Japanese counterparts. With regulatory headwinds easing up, now looks like a great time to buy into the second phase of 'guochao'.

20 December 2025 at 04:01 am AEDT